Most Offenders Under Federal Supervision Remain Arrest-Free

An unprecedented study of nearly 150,000 federal offenders shows that more than 75 percent of all people on federal probation and supervised release remain arrest-free within the first three years of their supervision term. The study found that only one tenth of all federal offenders were arrested for serious offenses within the first year of federal supervision; less than 17 percent within two years; and still under 23 percent within three years. Analogous recidivism figures for state systems show significantly higher re-arrest rates. Many complex factors influence recidivism rates, said Administrative Office of the United States Courts Assistant Director John Hughes, who heads the agencys Office of Probation and Pretrial Services. But we believe the professionalism of our probation staff nationwide, along with the ongoing support from the Judiciary, Congress, and various Executive Branch agencies, contribute to the positive numbers we have seen in the federal system. The recidivism study provides a framework for evaluating the effectiveness of federal supervision and will ultimately help inform policymakers about practices that are most effective at reducing recidivism. The goal of supervision is both community protection and the successful completion by the offender of the term of supervision or probation, said Judge Robert Holmes Bell, chair of the Judicial Conference Criminal Law Committee. This and future studies will tell us more about recidivism, and who is most vulnerable. With that information, we can hone strategies and improve our supervision. At the request of the Administrative Office, a private research firm tracked federal offenders, some of them for nearly five years. The study focused on two classifications of offenders those who received a period of probation rather than prison time and those placed under supervised release after serving time in prison. The re-arrest rates for those on probation were lower than for those on supervised release. Among probation offenders, 6.5 percent were re-arrested within one year; 10.9 percent within two years; and 15.3 percent within three years. Among supervised release offenders, 11.2 percent were re-arrested with one year; 18.3 percent within two years; and 23.9 percent within three years. The differences between recidivism rates for offenders serving terms of probation and for offenders serving (terms of supervised release) are narrower than one might expect, the study states. Essentially the controlling aspect of community supervision is working to remove the highest risk offenders on terms of supervised release to have rates of recidivism that are only slightly higher than the rates for probationers. The two overarching goals of federal supervision are 1.) protecting the public by minimizing offenders involvement in criminal activities during and after supervision, and 2.) ensuring the fair administration of justice. The study focused on evaluating achievement of the first goal reducing criminal recidivism, and did so both during the period of an offenders supervision and within three years of the end of that supervision. The number of persons on federal probation has grown by 10 percent since 2005, and totaled more than 124,000 at the start of fiscal year 2009. The number of ex-convicts those on terms of supervised release after a stay in prison has increased nearly 20 percent during that period. The complete study can be read online in the December 2010 issue of Federal Probation journal at www.uscourts.gov/FederalCourts/ProbationPretrialServices/FederalProbationJournal.aspx.